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UAE Freezones Biz News Updates
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UAE’s real non-oil GDP to double by 2020
EFG Hermes expects the economy to achieve double-digit growth as Expo
investment momentum to picks up
Dubai’s successful bid to host Expo 2020 will be a strong catalyst in the
economic growth of UAE in general, and Dubai in particular, with the
country’s real non-oil GDP expected to double between now and 2020,
according to Monica Malik, chief economist of EFG Hermes.
Speaking at a panel discussion at the Meed’s Destination Dubai 2020
conference on Wednesday, Malik said EFG Hermes has upgraded its 2014 GDP
growth forecast for the UAE from 4.7 per cent to 5.4 per cent on the back of
Dubai’s Expo 2020 win.
“Our growth upgrade is largely due to a pickup in investment outlook as a
result of the successful Expo bid. 2014 should be the fourth consecutive
year in which the UAE’s real non-oil GDP strengthens. We now view the UAE as
having the second strongest real non-oil GDP growth in the region after
Qatar,” said Malik.
The pick up in the economic activity, in the wake of the 2008 global crisis,
has been primarily driven by consumption, supported in 2011 by the Arab
Spring and the consequent fund flows that resulted in a rise in property
prices. However, in 2013, the UAE witnessed a broad-based rise in investment
activity.
Dubai’s real GDP accelerated to 4.9 per cent year on year in the first half
of 2013. Two sectors that saw particularly strong growth were hotels and
restaurants (13.7 per cent) and manufacturing (13.3 per cent).
“Wider investment growth in Dubai was already a part of its vision 2020. The
Expo win will add to Dubai’s confidence and fast track the implementation,”
Malik said.
The Expo will build on Dubai’s core sectors such as tourism, trade and
transportation and is expected to reach beyond the expo site.
Investment in the UAE started picking up in a meaningful way in 2013.
In 2014 and beyond, running up to the Expo, investments will be broad based
in the real estate, transportation, trade infrastructure, hotels and
hospitality sectors.
With the investments picking up momentum, Malik sees a multi-layer
investment multiplier kicking in.
“We estimate real non-oil GDP for the UAE around 5 to 6 per cent until 2015,
increasing to 6.5 to 8 per cent in 2016-2018 and 8 per cent to 10 per cent
in 2019–2020,” Malik.
With double-digit real GDP growth, inflation is also expected to accelerate
between now and 2020.
Malik expects inflation to remain relatively tame — unlike during the
previous boom (2005-2008) — due to a strong dollar, the absence of global
food-price inflation pressures and macro-prudential measures from the
government and the central bank in terms of higher registration fees for
property transactions, mortgage caps based on higher loan-to-value ratios to
rein in speculation.
Jan 29, 2014 |
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Courtesy Al Nisr Publishing LLC
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